Insights / us
CCL
Carnival Corporation & plcUS04/23/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.21%
P05–P95 span
12.04%
Neighbors
26
Sharpness
0.76
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-1.38%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
2/10(20%)
Below median
8/10(80%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.76%P25: -0.47%P50: 1.21%P75: 3.01%P95: 7.28%
Computed at: 04/24/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 24.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.