Insights / us
CB
Chubb LimitedUS05/27/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.06%
P05–P95 span
14.34%
Neighbors
24
Sharpness
0.71
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+2.47%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.76%P25: -1.66%P50: 0.06%P75: 2.39%P95: 6.58%
Computed at: 05/28/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 23.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.