Insights / us
CB
Chubb LimitedUS05/25/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.11%
P05–P95 span
19.14%
Neighbors
17
Sharpness
0.62
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.88%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -11.16%P25: -5.02%P50: -0.11%P75: 2.21%P95: 7.98%
Computed at: 05/26/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 16.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.