Insights / us
CB
Chubb LimitedUS05/14/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.18%
P05–P95 span
15.06%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.70
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-3.89%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.99%P25: -0.70%P50: 1.18%P75: 3.97%P95: 11.07%
Computed at: 05/15/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 33.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.