Insights / us
CB
Chubb LimitedUS05/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+2.11%
P05–P95 span
13.36%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.89%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.48%P25: 0.41%P50: 2.11%P75: 4.51%P95: 10.88%
Computed at: 05/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 35.2 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.