Insights / us
CB
Chubb LimitedUS04/16/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.65%
P05–P95 span
9.64%
Neighbors
18
Sharpness
0.81
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.16%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.91%P25: -2.46%P50: -0.65%P75: 0.51%P95: 4.73%
Computed at: 04/17/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 17.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.