Insights / us
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.US05/25/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.14%
P05–P95 span
11.24%
Neighbors
37
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+3.36%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.34%P25: -1.15%P50: 0.14%P75: 1.50%P95: 4.90%
Computed at: 05/26/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 36.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.