Insights / us
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.US05/19/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.56%
P05–P95 span
12.02%
Neighbors
36
Sharpness
0.76
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+7.95%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.01%P25: -1.29%P50: 0.56%P75: 2.57%P95: 5.01%
Computed at: 05/20/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 35.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.