Insights / us
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.US04/26/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.61%
P05–P95 span
7.01%
Neighbors
28
Sharpness
0.86
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+11.69%
Outer 90%
1/10(10%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.31%P25: -0.47%P50: 0.61%P75: 1.94%P95: 4.71%
Computed at: 04/27/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 27.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.