Insights / us
C
Citigroup Inc.US05/04/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.36%
P05–P95 span
10.16%
Neighbors
28
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-5.02%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
2/10(20%)
Below median
8/10(80%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.81%P25: -1.41%P50: 0.36%P75: 2.75%P95: 5.35%
Computed at: 05/05/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 27.0 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.