Insights / us
BK
The Bank of New York Mellon CorporationUS05/13/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.78%
P05–P95 span
14.28%
Neighbors
30
Sharpness
0.71
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
4 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+4
+1.02%
Outer 90%
4/4(100%)
Middle 50%
3/4(75%)
Above median
1/4(25%)
Below median
3/4(75%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.17%P25: -0.84%P50: 0.78%P75: 2.35%P95: 6.11%
Computed at: 05/14/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 29.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.