Insights / us
AXP
American Express CompanyUS06/11/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.43%
P05–P95 span
10.14%
Neighbors
19
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
4 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+4
+5.03%
Outer 90%
2/4(50%)
Middle 50%
0/4(0%)
Above median
4/4(100%)
Below median
0/4(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.25%P25: -0.35%P50: 1.43%P75: 3.50%P95: 7.89%
Computed at: 06/12/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 18.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.