Insights / us
AXP
American Express CompanyUS05/17/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.64%
P05–P95 span
7.54%
Neighbors
30
Sharpness
0.85
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-1.06%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.58%P25: 0.17%P50: 1.64%P75: 3.24%P95: 4.96%
Computed at: 05/18/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 29.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.