Insights / us
AVB
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.US06/08/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.66%
P05–P95 span
17.23%
Neighbors
30
Sharpness
0.66
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
2 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+2
-1.54%
Outer 90%
2/2(100%)
Middle 50%
0/2(0%)
Above median
0/2(0%)
Below median
2/2(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.93%P25: -0.22%P50: 1.66%P75: 4.44%P95: 11.30%
Computed at: 06/09/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 29.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.