Insights / us
AVB
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.US06/04/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.03%
P05–P95 span
19.68%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.61
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
4 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+4
-2.34%
Outer 90%
4/4(100%)
Middle 50%
4/4(100%)
Above median
0/4(0%)
Below median
4/4(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.67%P25: -4.33%P50: -1.03%P75: 1.52%P95: 11.01%
Computed at: 06/05/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 34.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.