Insights / us
AVB
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.US05/28/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.32%
P05–P95 span
10.19%
Neighbors
33
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
9 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+9
+0.41%
Outer 90%
9/9(100%)
Middle 50%
6/9(67%)
Above median
6/9(67%)
Below median
3/9(33%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.54%P25: -1.57%P50: 0.32%P75: 1.73%P95: 4.66%
Computed at: 05/29/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 32.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.