Insights / us
AVB
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.US05/25/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.21%
P05–P95 span
11.44%
Neighbors
34
Sharpness
0.77
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+0.66%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
6/10(60%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -6.38%P25: -1.00%P50: 0.21%P75: 1.75%P95: 5.06%
Computed at: 05/26/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 33.1 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.