Insights / us
AVB
AvalonBay Communities, Inc.US04/23/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.82%
P05–P95 span
8.89%
Neighbors
39
Sharpness
0.82
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+6.32%
Outer 90%
2/10(20%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.20%P25: -0.58%P50: 0.82%P75: 2.61%P95: 5.69%
Computed at: 04/24/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 38.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.