Insights / us
APA
APA CorporationUS06/04/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.07%
P05–P95 span
12.11%
Neighbors
38
Sharpness
0.76
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
4 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+4
-3.29%
Outer 90%
4/4(100%)
Middle 50%
0/4(0%)
Above median
1/4(25%)
Below median
3/4(75%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.40%P25: -4.84%P50: -2.07%P75: 0.05%P95: 3.71%
Computed at: 06/05/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 36.2 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.