Insights / us
APA
APA CorporationUS04/15/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.91%
P05–P95 span
7.90%
Neighbors
29
Sharpness
0.84
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+12.03%
Outer 90%
4/10(40%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
8/10(80%)
Below median
2/10(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -1.62%P25: 0.65%P50: 1.91%P75: 3.34%P95: 6.28%
Computed at: 04/16/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 28.2 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.