Insights / us
AON
Aon plcUS06/08/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.50%
P05–P95 span
11.62%
Neighbors
28
Sharpness
0.77
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
2 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+2
+3.17%
Outer 90%
0/2(0%)
Middle 50%
0/2(0%)
Above median
2/2(100%)
Below median
0/2(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.93%P25: -1.19%P50: 0.50%P75: 3.51%P95: 7.68%
Computed at: 06/09/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 27.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.