Insights / us
AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.US05/19/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.83%
P05–P95 span
13.88%
Neighbors
37
Sharpness
0.72
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-2.41%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
6/10(60%)
Below median
4/10(40%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.28%P25: 0.01%P50: 1.83%P75: 4.27%P95: 10.60%
Computed at: 05/20/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 36.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.