Insights / us
AMZN
Amazon.com, Inc.US04/23/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.21%
P05–P95 span
18.86%
Neighbors
25
Sharpness
0.62
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+4.88%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -11.93%P25: -2.17%P50: -0.21%P75: 1.94%P95: 6.93%
Computed at: 04/24/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 24.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.