Insights / us
AMAT
Applied Materials, Inc.US06/08/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.72%
P05–P95 span
10.47%
Neighbors
26
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
2 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+2
+10.15%
Outer 90%
1/2(50%)
Middle 50%
0/2(0%)
Above median
1/2(50%)
Below median
1/2(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.36%P25: -0.61%P50: 0.72%P75: 2.33%P95: 6.11%
Computed at: 06/09/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 25.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.