Insights / us
AMAT
Applied Materials, Inc.US06/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.10%
P05–P95 span
19.42%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.61
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
5 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+5
+13.79%
Outer 90%
3/5(60%)
Middle 50%
1/5(20%)
Above median
4/5(80%)
Below median
1/5(20%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.93%P25: -2.12%P50: -0.10%P75: 2.66%P95: 11.49%
Computed at: 06/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 34.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.