Insights / us
AMAT
Applied Materials, Inc.US05/17/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.25%
P05–P95 span
18.06%
Neighbors
29
Sharpness
0.64
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+11.18%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
6/10(60%)
Below median
4/10(40%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.92%P25: -1.91%P50: 0.25%P75: 2.61%P95: 10.14%
Computed at: 05/18/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 28.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.