Insights / us
AMAT
Applied Materials, Inc.US04/22/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.77%
P05–P95 span
9.83%
Neighbors
27
Sharpness
0.80
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.10%
Outer 90%
7/10(70%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
4/10(40%)
Below median
6/10(60%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.40%P25: -0.46%P50: 0.77%P75: 2.24%P95: 5.43%
Computed at: 04/23/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 26.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.