Insights / us
AMAT
Applied Materials, Inc.US04/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-3.31%
P05–P95 span
20.56%
Neighbors
39
Sharpness
0.59
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.76%
Outer 90%
8/10(80%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -19.15%P25: -10.25%P50: -3.31%P75: -0.76%P95: 1.42%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 38.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.