Insights / us
ALLE
Allegion plcUS06/04/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.42%
P05–P95 span
14.84%
Neighbors
34
Sharpness
0.70
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
4 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+4
+2.93%
Outer 90%
4/4(100%)
Middle 50%
2/4(50%)
Above median
2/4(50%)
Below median
2/4(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -9.07%P25: -2.01%P50: 0.42%P75: 2.48%P95: 5.76%
Computed at: 06/05/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 33.3 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.