Insights / us
ALLE
Allegion plcUS05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.32%
P05–P95 span
11.59%
Neighbors
13
Sharpness
0.77
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
+3.77%
Outer 90%
8/8(100%)
Middle 50%
5/8(63%)
Above median
7/8(88%)
Below median
1/8(13%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.84%P25: -1.76%P50: -0.32%P75: 2.05%P95: 7.75%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 12.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.