Insights / us
ALLE
Allegion plcUS04/16/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.62%
P05–P95 span
10.66%
Neighbors
19
Sharpness
0.79
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-4.93%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
6/10(60%)
Below median
4/10(40%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.97%P25: -1.79%P50: -0.62%P75: 0.65%P95: 2.69%
Computed at: 04/17/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 18.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.