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ALL
The Allstate CorporationUS05/20/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.96%
P05–P95 span
13.81%
Neighbors
32
Sharpness
0.72
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.39%
Outer 90%
6/10(60%)
Middle 50%
1/10(10%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -4.25%P25: -0.36%P50: 0.96%P75: 2.95%P95: 9.56%
Computed at: 05/21/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 31.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.