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ALL
The Allstate CorporationUS04/27/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.48%
P05–P95 span
15.16%
Neighbors
30
Sharpness
0.70
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.33%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
9/10(90%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -9.74%P25: -3.74%P50: -0.48%P75: 2.25%P95: 5.41%
Computed at: 04/28/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 29.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.