AJG

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.US06/08/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move

+0.54%

P05–P95 span

13.83%

Neighbors

Sharpness

0.72

Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)

2 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices

Realized @ D+2

+2.96%

Outer 90%

1/2(50%)

Middle 50%

0/2(0%)

Above median

2/2(100%)

Below median

0/2(0%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -7.45%P25: -1.69%P50: 0.54%P75: 2.39%P95: 6.39%

Computed at: 06/09/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 27.8 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.