Insights / us
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.US06/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.76%
P05–P95 span
13.01%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
5 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+5
+6.84%
Outer 90%
3/5(60%)
Middle 50%
0/5(0%)
Above median
5/5(100%)
Below median
0/5(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.09%P25: -2.75%P50: -0.76%P75: 1.07%P95: 5.92%
Computed at: 06/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 34.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.