Insights / us
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.US04/13/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+1.25%
P05–P95 span
8.13%
Neighbors
23
Sharpness
0.84
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-3.53%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
4/10(40%)
Above median
3/10(30%)
Below median
7/10(70%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.38%P25: -0.36%P50: 1.25%P75: 3.07%P95: 5.75%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 22.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.