Insights / us
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.US04/08/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-1.70%
P05–P95 span
17.15%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.66
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+0.14%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
3/10(30%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -9.41%P25: -4.75%P50: -1.70%P75: 0.72%P95: 7.74%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 34.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.