Insights / us
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.US04/06/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.01%
P05–P95 span
12.99%
Neighbors
17
Sharpness
0.74
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+2.49%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.18%P25: -1.85%P50: -0.01%P75: 2.62%P95: 7.80%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 16.7 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.