AIG

American International Group, Inc.US05/18/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move

+1.27%

P05–P95 span

10.18%

Neighbors

Sharpness

0.80

Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)

10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices

Realized @ D+10

-7.46%

Outer 90%

4/10(40%)

Middle 50%

1/10(10%)

Above median

1/10(10%)

Below median

9/10(90%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -3.00%P25: -0.25%P50: 1.27%P75: 3.27%P95: 7.18%

Computed at: 05/19/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 31.3 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.