AIG

American International Group, Inc.US04/26/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move

+0.83%

P05–P95 span

12.93%

Neighbors

Sharpness

0.74

Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)

10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices

Realized @ D+10

+1.81%

Outer 90%

10/10(100%)

Middle 50%

4/10(40%)

Above median

7/10(70%)

Below median

3/10(30%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -6.19%P25: -0.80%P50: 0.83%P75: 2.54%P95: 6.73%

Computed at: 04/27/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 21.4 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.