Insights / us
AIG
American International Group, Inc.US04/22/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.20%
P05–P95 span
11.02%
Neighbors
25
Sharpness
0.78
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+0.59%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.08%P25: -1.18%P50: 0.20%P75: 1.66%P95: 5.93%
Computed at: 04/23/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 24.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.