AIG

American International Group, Inc.US04/15/2026 · historical

Anchor-neighbor future return range

Median move

+1.35%

P05–P95 span

14.06%

Neighbors

Sharpness

0.72

Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)

10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices

Realized @ D+10

-2.63%

Outer 90%

9/10(90%)

Middle 50%

2/10(20%)

Above median

3/10(30%)

Below median

7/10(70%)

Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.

Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar

MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized

Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors

P05: -6.33%P25: -0.37%P50: 1.35%P75: 3.35%P95: 7.73%

Computed at: 04/16/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 23.9 · horizon 10 bars

Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.