Insights / us
AES
The AES CorporationUS05/31/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+3.84%
P05–P95 span
13.80%
Neighbors
32
Sharpness
0.72
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
8 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+8
-0.11%
Outer 90%
8/8(100%)
Middle 50%
0/8(0%)
Above median
0/8(0%)
Below median
8/8(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -2.27%P25: 1.46%P50: 3.84%P75: 7.62%P95: 11.54%
Computed at: 06/01/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 31.5 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.