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AES
The AES CorporationUS05/26/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.84%
P05–P95 span
19.17%
Neighbors
38
Sharpness
0.62
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.27%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
9/10(90%)
Above median
9/10(90%)
Below median
1/10(10%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -15.87%P25: -2.87%P50: -0.84%P75: 0.73%P95: 3.30%
Computed at: 05/27/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 37.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.