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AES
The AES CorporationUS05/21/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.09%
P05–P95 span
12.45%
Neighbors
29
Sharpness
0.75
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-0.14%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
10/10(100%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -5.54%P25: -2.79%P50: -0.09%P75: 1.81%P95: 6.91%
Computed at: 05/22/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 28.8 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.