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AES
The AES CorporationUS04/06/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.56%
P05–P95 span
5.10%
Neighbors
40
Sharpness
0.90
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
+1.19%
Outer 90%
5/10(50%)
Middle 50%
0/10(0%)
Above median
10/10(100%)
Below median
0/10(0%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -3.85%P25: -1.62%P50: -0.56%P75: 0.27%P95: 1.25%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:47 AM · ESS 38.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.