Insights / us
AEP
American Electric Power Company, Inc.US04/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-2.68%
P05–P95 span
22.30%
Neighbors
35
Sharpness
0.55
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-1.04%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -20.76%P25: -6.18%P50: -2.68%P75: -0.35%P95: 1.54%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 34.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.