Insights / us
AEE
Ameren CorporationUS05/13/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-0.12%
P05–P95 span
13.30%
Neighbors
23
Sharpness
0.73
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-1.02%
Outer 90%
9/10(90%)
Middle 50%
7/10(70%)
Above median
5/10(50%)
Below median
5/10(50%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -7.26%P25: -1.62%P50: -0.12%P75: 1.67%P95: 6.04%
Computed at: 05/14/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 22.9 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.