Insights / us
AEE
Ameren CorporationUS05/03/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
+0.25%
P05–P95 span
14.29%
Neighbors
29
Sharpness
0.71
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-4.60%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
2/10(20%)
Above median
0/10(0%)
Below median
10/10(100%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -8.22%P25: -2.08%P50: 0.25%P75: 2.63%P95: 6.07%
Computed at: 05/04/26, 02:45 AM · ESS 28.4 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.