Insights / us
AEE
Ameren CorporationUS04/12/2026 · historicalAnchor-neighbor future return range
Median move
-3.74%
P05–P95 span
23.47%
Neighbors
33
Sharpness
0.53
Forecast vs realized (hit-rate)
10 of 10 forecast days elapsed · comparing realized close prices
Realized @ D+10
-1.12%
Outer 90%
10/10(100%)
Middle 50%
5/10(50%)
Above median
7/10(70%)
Below median
3/10(30%)
Higher band-hit rate = better prediction. Above/below median tells which direction the actual drifted from the forecast center.
Probability Cone (D+1 ~ D+10)
Quantile bands P05/P25/P50/P75/P95 for each horizon bar
MedianMiddle 50%Outer 90%Realized
Aggregated distribution (density strip)
Weighted aggregate across all horizon bars and neighbors
P05: -22.23%P25: -10.88%P50: -3.74%P75: -1.30%P95: 1.24%
Computed at: 04/15/26, 02:46 AM · ESS 32.6 · horizon 10 bars
Note: This distribution is not investment advice and reflects historical patterns shown for reference only.